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By Picki
In property investment, there’s a popular belief: when new hospitals, highways, schools, or stadiums are built, property prices nearby must go up. You’ve probably seen this on glossy brochures or heard it in sales pitches—new developments mean booming investments. But do new projects truly increase property values, and if so, by how much?
At Picki, we treat property investment like a science. Our guiding principle, our own “E=MC²,” is Investment Growth (Opportunity) = Demand (Population + Employment + Lifestyle + New Projects) - Supply (New Housing Construction). This formula represents our commitment to understanding how each factor drives property value.
Today, we’re focusing on the New Projects aspect of this formula and its contribution to property growth. Our aim is to uncover the hard data behind these assumptions and provide clear, measurable insights for investors.
When we look at projects, we ask questions like:
Many claims about project-driven growth are based on assumptions rather than hard data. We believe in the opposite approach: instead of relying on a few impressive photos, we looked across all projects in Australia to establish a foundation of evidence. Our research documents 12,148 projects, from the beaches of Bondi to the remote regions of Tasmania, each with an assessed impact on its local area and beyond.
We wanted to avoid superficial analysis, so we examined projects across Australia worth $5 million or more in public and private sectors. This gives us a national perspective and enables us to assess and rank Local Government Areas (LGAs) by the scale and impact of projects they host.
Each project is unique, from hospitals in remote communities to high-tech data centers in global capitals. But one thing unites them: they all impact their local communities, whether by creating jobs, increasing local spending, or raising property demand. Here’s how we calculate and rank these impacts.
Top 3 LGAs by Project Spend Per Capita (Per State)
For each state, here are the top 3 LGAs by Project Spend Per Capita:
New South Wales:
Queensland:
South Australia:
Victoria:
Western Australia:
Tasmania:
It’s easy to list projects in an area, but determining their actual influence on property growth requires more precision. To assess impact, we created a model based on:
A project doesn’t just affect the area where it’s located. Consider a new luxury hotel in a popular coastal suburb. During construction, it may create some local jobs, but once completed, it primarily serves tourists and doesn’t directly benefit local residents. However, the hotel needs staff—chefs, cleaners, managers—many of whom might live in surrounding suburbs.
We analyzed each project’s local impact and its influence on surrounding LGAs. This “ripple effect” captures how projects in one LGA can benefit workers and communities in nearby areas, affecting property demand across regions.
Simply knowing a project’s size doesn’t tell us its true impact. Some LGAs, like North Sydney or Melbourne’s Docklands, attract high-value projects but also have large populations, diluting the impact per capita.
To achieve a meaningful comparison, we calculated Project Spend Per Capita for each LGA:
This magic number, Project Spend Per Capita, has shown the highest predictive correlation with future capital growth. By assessing each LGA with this metric, we could rank them and assign a percentile score, allowing investors to compare potential growth hotbeds across the country.
“Invest where growth is truly backed by numbers, not just promises. Our research reveals that LGAs with the highest ‘Project Spend Per Capita’ have a significantly stronger correlation to future capital growth. By examining the real economic weight of projects, rather than just flashy announcements, you can identify areas primed for sustainable property appreciation before they hit the mainstream radar.” Jacob Field
On Picki, you can view the Project Spend Per Capita for any LGA in Australia, along with its percentile rank. Each LGA also features a snapshot of ongoing projects, mapped out for easy visualization. You can search for a Local Government Area and view its project data via our homepage.
The New Projects Tab on the LGA Research Page:
Projects do impact property values, but not all projects contribute equally, and not all in the same way. By focusing on the Project Spend Per Capita metric, we enable investors to identify where significant developments are genuinely likely to drive property demand.
Our approach gives you the insights you need to make informed decisions—based on data, not assumptions. At Picki, we’re here to help you invest wisely, leveraging the power of real metrics to uncover Australia’s next property growth areas.
Visit Picki.com.au and use our LGA search to dive deeper into Australia’s most impactful projects and promising property markets.
