Project Spend Per Capita: The Real Story Behind New Developments and Property Growth

In property investment, there's a popular belief: when new hospitals, highways, schools, or stadiums are built, property prices nearby must go up. You've probably seen this on glossy brochures or heard it in sales pitches—new developments mean booming investments. But do new projects truly increase property values, and if so, by how much?

At Picki, we treat property investment like a science. Our guiding principle, our own "E=MC²," is Investment Growth (Opportunity) = Demand (Population + Employment + Lifestyle + New Projects) - Supply (New Housing Construction). This formula represents our commitment to understanding how each factor drives property value.

Today, we're focusing on the New Projects aspect of this formula and its contribution to property growth. Our aim is to uncover the hard data behind these assumptions and provide clear, measurable insights for investors.

Understanding What Drives Demand: Not All Projects Are Created Equal

When we look at projects, we ask questions like:

• What types of projects truly drive demand? Are they hospitals, data centers, or perhaps major entertainment venues?

- When do these projects impact property values? Is it at the announcement stage, during construction, or long after completion?

- What defines a project as significant? Not every shiny new hotel or luxury marina will shift property prices.

Many claims about project-driven growth are based on assumptions rather than hard data. We believe in the opposite approach: instead of relying on a few impressive photos, we looked across all projects in Australia to establish a foundation of evidence. Our research documents 12,148 projects, from the beaches of Bondi to the remote regions of Tasmania, each with an assessed impact on its local area and beyond.

The Data: Going Broad Before We Zoom In

We wanted to avoid superficial analysis, so we examined projects across Australia worth $5 million or more in public and private sectors. This gives us a national perspective and enables us to assess and rank Local Government Areas (LGAs) by the scale and impact of projects they host.

Each project is unique, from hospitals in remote communities to high-tech data centers in global capitals. But one thing unites them: they all impact their local communities, whether by creating jobs, increasing local spending, or raising property demand. Here's how we calculate and rank these impacts.

Top 3 LGAs by Project Spend Per Capita (Per State)

For each state, here are the top 3 LGAs by Project Spend Per Capita:

New South Wales:

- Narrabri (A)

- Wentworth (A)

- Murrumbidgee (A)

Queensland:

- Gladstone (R)

- Western Downs (R)

- Cherbourg (S)

South Australia:

- Port Adelaide Enfield (C)

- Adelaide (C)

- Northern Areas (DC)

Victoria:

- Loddon (S)

- Melbourne (C)

- Strathbogie (S)

Western Australia:

- Boddington (S)

- Perth (C)

- Cranbrook (S)

Tasmania:

- Hobart (C)

- Launceston (C)

- West Coast (M)

How We Measure Impact: From Job Creation to Local Influence

It's easy to list projects in an area, but determining their actual influence on property growth requires more precision. To assess impact, we created a model based on:

Job Multipliers: Different industries produce varying job opportunities. For instance, a health project generates 0.85 jobs per million dollars spent, while a data center may create far fewer.

Likelihood of Completion: Projects at different stages have varying levels of certainty. Completed projects have the most reliable impact, while those still "under consideration" may only partially influence demand.

Local Impact Per Million: Industries vary in how much they affect local economies. For example, health projects have a high local impact score, while a mining project might impact a broader area, often extending beyond the local community.

Calculating Impact Beyond Local Borders: The "Ripple Effect"

A project doesn't just affect the area where it's located. Consider a new luxury hotel in a popular coastal suburb. During construction, it may create some local jobs, but once completed, it primarily serves tourists and doesn't directly benefit local residents. However, the hotel needs staff—chefs, cleaners, managers—many of whom might live in surrounding s